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ILLUSTRATIVE ASSUMPTIONS · CAD · BEFORE INCOME TAX
Capital requirementC$1,375,000
Equity: C$725,000
Stabilized monthly NOIC$2,236
Before debt & capital spending
Monthly debt serviceC$4,389
Stabilized DSCR: 0.51×
36-month cash flow-C$159,437
After debt & recurring capital
Effective gross incomeOperating expenses
Break-even occupancy
102.4%Uniform occupancy needed to cover OPEX, debt service and recurring capital at the scenario rates, net of discounts and losses.
Above physical capacity. These assumptions do not support cash break-even.
Reserve pressure
C$109,437Additional reserve required to avoid a negative modelled cash balance over 36 months. Opening reserve: C$50,000.
| Width · ft | Depth · ft | Quantity | Rent · C$/mo | Occupancy % | Discount % | Collection loss % | Remove |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Monthly cash flow table · 36 periods
| Month | Physical | Economic | Income | OPEX | NOI | Debt | Cash flow | Reserve |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 0% | C$0 | C$6,400 | -C$6,400 | C$4,389 | -C$11,039 | C$38,961 |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | C$0 | C$6,416 | -C$6,416 | C$4,389 | -C$11,055 | C$27,907 |
| 3 | 19.1% | 17.7% | C$2,147 | C$6,432 | -C$4,285 | C$4,389 | -C$8,924 | C$18,983 |
| 4 | 23.9% | 22.1% | C$2,646 | C$6,447 | -C$3,802 | C$4,389 | -C$8,441 | C$10,542 |
| 5 | 28.7% | 26.6% | C$3,145 | C$6,463 | -C$3,318 | C$4,389 | -C$7,957 | C$2,585 |
| 6 | 33.5% | 31% | C$3,644 | C$6,479 | -C$2,835 | C$4,389 | -C$7,474 | -C$4,889 |
| 7 | 38.3% | 35.4% | C$4,143 | C$6,495 | -C$2,352 | C$4,389 | -C$6,991 | -C$11,880 |
| 8 | 43.1% | 39.8% | C$4,642 | C$6,511 | -C$1,869 | C$4,389 | -C$6,508 | -C$18,388 |
| 9 | 47.8% | 44.3% | C$5,142 | C$6,527 | -C$1,386 | C$4,389 | -C$6,025 | -C$24,413 |
| 10 | 52.6% | 48.7% | C$5,641 | C$6,543 | -C$903 | C$4,389 | -C$5,542 | -C$29,954 |
| 11 | 57.4% | 53.1% | C$6,140 | C$6,560 | -C$420 | C$4,389 | -C$5,059 | -C$35,013 |
| 12 | 62.2% | 57.5% | C$6,639 | C$6,576 | C$63 | C$4,389 | -C$4,576 | -C$39,588 |
| 13 | 67% | 62% | C$7,138 | C$6,592 | C$546 | C$4,389 | -C$4,093 | -C$43,681 |
| 14 | 71.8% | 66.4% | C$7,637 | C$6,608 | C$1,029 | C$4,389 | -C$3,610 | -C$47,291 |
| 15 | 76.5% | 70.8% | C$8,136 | C$6,625 | C$1,512 | C$4,389 | -C$3,127 | -C$50,418 |
| 16 | 81.3% | 75.2% | C$8,636 | C$6,641 | C$1,995 | C$4,389 | -C$2,644 | -C$53,062 |
| 17 | 81.3% | 75.2% | C$8,636 | C$6,657 | C$1,978 | C$4,389 | -C$2,660 | -C$55,722 |
| 18 | 81.3% | 75.2% | C$8,636 | C$6,674 | C$1,962 | C$4,389 | -C$2,677 | -C$58,399 |
| 19 | 81.3% | 75.2% | C$8,636 | C$6,690 | C$1,945 | C$4,389 | -C$2,693 | -C$61,092 |
| 20 | 81.3% | 75.2% | C$8,636 | C$6,707 | C$1,929 | C$4,389 | -C$2,710 | -C$63,802 |
| 21 | 81.3% | 75.2% | C$8,636 | C$6,723 | C$1,912 | C$4,389 | -C$2,726 | -C$66,529 |
| 22 | 81.3% | 75.2% | C$8,636 | C$6,740 | C$1,896 | C$4,389 | -C$2,743 | -C$69,272 |
| 23 | 81.3% | 75.2% | C$8,636 | C$6,756 | C$1,879 | C$4,389 | -C$2,760 | -C$72,031 |
| 24 | 81.3% | 75.2% | C$8,636 | C$6,773 | C$1,863 | C$4,389 | -C$2,776 | -C$74,808 |
| 25 | 81.3% | 75.2% | C$8,636 | C$6,790 | C$1,846 | C$4,389 | -C$2,793 | -C$77,601 |
| 26 | 81.3% | 75.2% | C$8,636 | C$6,807 | C$1,829 | C$4,389 | -C$2,810 | -C$80,410 |
| 27 | 81.3% | 75.2% | C$8,636 | C$6,823 | C$1,812 | C$4,389 | -C$2,826 | -C$83,237 |
| 28 | 81.3% | 75.2% | C$8,636 | C$6,840 | C$1,796 | C$4,389 | -C$2,843 | -C$86,080 |
| 29 | 81.3% | 75.2% | C$8,636 | C$6,857 | C$1,779 | C$4,389 | -C$2,860 | -C$88,940 |
| 30 | 81.3% | 75.2% | C$8,636 | C$6,874 | C$1,762 | C$4,389 | -C$2,877 | -C$91,817 |
| 31 | 81.3% | 75.2% | C$8,636 | C$6,891 | C$1,745 | C$4,389 | -C$2,894 | -C$94,711 |
| 32 | 81.3% | 75.2% | C$8,636 | C$6,908 | C$1,728 | C$4,389 | -C$2,911 | -C$97,622 |
| 33 | 81.3% | 75.2% | C$8,636 | C$6,925 | C$1,711 | C$4,389 | -C$2,928 | -C$100,551 |
| 34 | 81.3% | 75.2% | C$8,636 | C$6,942 | C$1,694 | C$4,389 | -C$2,945 | -C$103,496 |
| 35 | 81.3% | 75.2% | C$8,636 | C$6,959 | C$1,677 | C$4,389 | -C$2,962 | -C$106,458 |
| 36 | 81.3% | 75.2% | C$8,636 | C$6,976 | C$1,659 | C$4,389 | -C$2,979 | -C$109,437 |
Scenario sensitivity
| Scenario | Target rent / occupancy | Monthly OPEX | Horizon cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|
| conservative | −10% / −20% | C$7,360 | -C$277,441 |
| base | Entered assumptions | C$6,400 | -C$159,437 |
| growth | +5% / +10% | C$6,720 | -C$128,811 |
No market forecasts or guaranteed returns. Conservative: occupancy ×0.8, rent ×0.9, OPEX ×1.15, ramp ×0.65, two extra delay months. Growth: occupancy ×1.1 (capped at 100%), rent ×1.05, OPEX ×1.05, ramp ×1.3. Taxes, refinance, sale proceeds and property appreciation are excluded.
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